Are prices going up or going down? A full breakdown of what the numbers were in April, and what we anticipate moving forward!

Hello and welcome to a new episode of Merrill’s Monday Market Madness, coming at you today with an update regarding the Phoenix residential housing market I’m going to be talking a little bit about prices and whether they’re currently rising or falling and what we anticipate to see moving forward but if you have any questions about anything that might be happening in the market or what might be happening in your area feel free to comment on this post. I should be able to see some of your comments live here during the video if I can answer it on the spot I will and if I can’t I will definitely get back to you and do my best to answer the question directly. So, I like to always start off by looking at a supply and demand metric that we look at called month’s supply of inventory.

So right now, active in our MLS we have 12,405 listings to put that into perspective so again all residential listings so that’s Town Homes, condos manufactured homes and single-family homes 12 405. so in 2022 early 2022 at the like lowest amount we ever hit was around 4,000 active listings so right now we have 3x more homes than we did at the lowest point however we at the highest point which was around November of 2022 we had around 21,000 active listings so we were from in recent high if you go back to the housing crash in like 2008, 2009 there were 40 – 50 000 active listings at a time so right now 12,000 is actually a very very low number I mean consider the population of the Phoenix Metro Area, five six million people and there are only 12,400 homes currently available for buyers who want to buy so not the lowest that we’ve seen it but down almost in half from the from how many we had just last November.

So not only is it falling but it’s falling fast currently pending we have just under 10,000. 9,983 homes that are currently pending. One thing that we did see in 2020 and 2021 was that we actually had way more pending contracts at a time than we had active listings. So right now there are slightly more active than there are pending but if the trend continues for another month or so we will probably go back into that where there are actually more homes that are pending than there are that are active the last 30 days. We’ve seen 6634 closings so the month’s supply of inventory number meaning I’m just taking the actives divided by how many homes sold in the past 30 days is at 1.87 which is considered a seller’s market meaning that there’s just for how many buyers that are buying despite lower demand so to give you an idea, the month of April we saw 6,637 homes close well in April of 2022 we saw 9,285 homes closed so that the total number of homes selling this year this April compared to April of last year is down 29 so much fewer like volume much fewer homes are selling however um the uh the fewer home selling but not with such little inventory but we still have a very low kind of month supply of inventory number so I’d like to just kind of give you a recap of what some of the April numbers were and how they compared to April last year to kind of give you some perspective of where the market is compared to a year ago so again a year ago there was next to nothing for sale demand was still really high interest rates were just starting to go up but April really hadn’t felt a big change in the market yet the market didn’t really start to fill a significant slowdown until like June or July so even though again rates had started to go up a little bit by April, the market was still in a frenzy.

So, 6,637 homes sold as I already said the average price of the homes that sold in April just take all of them the average was $553,669 compared to April of last year the average price was 592,000. So year over year average prices are down 6.5%, so you know homes have sold in April this year compared to April 2022 they did sell 6.5% less money on average so that might make you think well how could we possibly be in a Cell, how could we possibly be in a seller’s market but prices are declining? Well, unfortunately, the year-over-year average price isn’t telling the accurate story and this is why like sometimes the big national news Sensational headlines just don’t really help you understand what’s actually happening in the market locally and what’s happening at that given time so year over year we’re down 6.5%t but check this out in March the average price was $541,000.

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